Pollster Nate Silver says people should be making contingency plans for Trump win

​Silver’s model correctly predicted the results of the 2008, 2012 and the 2020 elections but about 2024, he said it’s still a “toss-up”. According to his 2024 model, Harris retains a modest lead in the probability of winning the election and the popular vote, as well as a 63 percent probability of winning swing state Michigan and a 57 percent chance of taking the crucial state of Pennsylvania.